It is an illusion that Serbia can remain neutral and unintegrated into the Euro-Atlantic security structure in the long term while being surrounded by countries that are part of that order. It is an even greater delusion to believe that one part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, its smaller and poorer entity, can halt the integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina into NATO and the European Union. The question arises: what supports such claims, and do they have any basis?
The collective West has attempted through various methods over the past decade to persuade Belgrade to turn towards the future and become part of the developed and democratic world. In this context, the so-called Berlin Process was initiated in Berlin in 2014 as support for the countries of the Western Balkans for better mutual cooperation and faster integration into the EU. Then there was support for the Open Balkan project, which proved unrealistic and unjust for all countries invited to join. Although no process has been brought to completion, a third process with similar goals has been presented under the name “Growth Plan,” which is yet to be tested. Ironically, during all this time, instead of relaxing relations, tensions in the Balkans have increased, resulting in an outcome opposite to what was expected. With the latest package, although it provides financial support to the region’s countries amounting to 6 billion euros, tensions are reaching their peak.
In a broader geopolitical context, the Berlin Process was actually Europe’s response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which occurred a few months earlier that same year. As the dynamics of relations between Russia and Ukraine deteriorated over the last decade, tensions in the Western Balkans have also risen correspondingly. The Berlin Process has long been forgotten, and Europe is now focused on preventing a potential new hotspot in the Balkans because all efforts to compel Serbia towards cooperation through economic measures have evidently yielded no results. It has been shown that the problem in the Balkans is not a weak economy needing funds for improvement but rather Serbia’s continuation of its 1990s policy aimed at claiming parts of neighboring states’ territories. This stance is publicly expressed by holders of high positions in Belgrade as well as their followers in Banja Luka.
Since 1844 and Ilija Garašanin’s Načertanija, Serbia has harbored ambitions for expansion into Bosnia and Herzegovina. The first such opportunity after Načertanija arose at the Berlin Congress in 1878 when the great powers convened to reshape Europe’s geopolitical map. The participants included Germany as host, followed by Great Britain, France, Italy, Austria-Hungary, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire. They agreed that Bosnia and Herzegovina would come under Austro-Hungarian administration, which later annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1908. Of course, Russia also agreed.
Serbia was not allowed to expand westward beyond the Drina River at the Berlin Congress, thereby confirming the Drina as a deep boundary at the crossroads of worlds, which historically divided the Eastern and Western Roman Empires since the 4th century, and later separated the Eastern and Western churches from the 11th century onward. World War I began on the Drina in 1914 when Austria-Hungary attacked Serbia after the assassination of Austro-Hungarian heir Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, and the 20th century, at least in Europe, also ended on the Drina with the genocide in Srebrenica in 1995. According to a ruling by the International Court of Justice in The Hague on February 26, 2007, which is referenced by the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia in its Declaration condemning the crimes in Srebrenica from March 31, 2010, genocide was committed by the Army and Police of Republika Srpska, and Serbia was found responsible for violating the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Genocide. The adoption of this Declaration followed a diplomatic initiative by former member of Bosnia’s Presidency Dr. Haris Silajdžić and lobbying from then Turkish Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmet Davutoğlu among others. The Declaration of the Serbian Assembly states: “The National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia strongly condemns the crime committed against the Bosniak population in Srebrenica in July 1995, as established by the ruling of the International Court of Justice.”
Nearly 150 years have passed since the Berlin Congress, and the Balkans are once again a place where today’s global powers measure their strength or two political visions of the world. On one side is the Euro-Atlantic world led by the United States, and on the other is the concept of the Russian world. Compared to 1878 and the Berlin Congress, there is one essential difference: The main boundary where global influences have historically intersected, namely at the Drina River, has now shifted far east to the Dnieper River in Ukraine. The Western Balkans are deep behind NATO and the European Union, where security risks exist but are much smaller than they were in 1878 when three great empires—Austro-Hungarian, Russian, and Ottoman—collided in the Balkans. Nevertheless, even in such settings of greater risk, Western leaders at that time took control of Bosnia and Herzegovina and confirmed the Drina River as a border.
Currently, tensions are rising in the Balkans between Serbia and its neighbors as attempts are made to destabilize Southeast Europe’s EU-NATO flank alongside developments in Ukraine. This is particularly evident in Bosnia and Kosovo, where Western allies are reinforcing their presence with new troops and heavy machinery and artillery. Considering that Serbia’s other neighbors are NATO members, it is clear that strengthening military forces in Bosnia and Kosovo signifies reaffirming boundaries between two worlds—this time Euro-Atlantic versus neutral Serbia which does not wish to join NATO. Adding to this situation is Croatia’s recent troop movements near its border with Serbia and sending additional allied troops to Bulgaria; thus reinforcing Euro-Atlantic order around neutral Serbia.
What is needed at this moment is for “NATO” Brussels to urgently integrate Bosnia and Herzegovina into NATO and de jure accept it into membership. This decision should be followed by “European” Brussels through accelerated procedures to admit Bosnia into full EU membership with assistance from pro-European politicians within Bosnia along with mechanisms possessed by high representatives. This would permanently end Belgrade’s regime’s grand state dreams of expanding borders at neighbors’ expense—especially westward beyond Drina. The message would be very clear: sooner or later, the rest of the Balkans will become part of the Euro-Atlantic family of states. Only then will true democratization occur within Serbia that will suppress anti-European policies while initiating processes towards joining other European states.
The decisions made at the Berlin Congress in 1878 were taken under much more complex geopolitical circumstances. At that time, Austria-Hungary included present-day Slovenia and Croatia within its territory before acquiring Bosnia and Herzegovina as well. Today Slovenia and Croatia are EU-NATO members; why not Bosnia? Is there a lack of courage or determination within Brussels to make decisions that will finally formalize Bosnia’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic world? Today it is much simpler despite certain challenges ahead.
