Relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Quint States: United States of America

The Quint states—comprising the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France, and the United States—also make up the majority of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC). The political influence of the US has often been decisive in the development of the situation in BiH, from its international recognition to the present day. A retrospective overview shows that the dynamics of BiH’s progress towards EU and NATO membership depend on the engagement of American diplomacy in and around Bosnia and Herzegovina. The American strategic interest, as often publicly reiterated, is to support the sovereignty and integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, its multiethnic character, and its future within the Euro-Atlantic family of states.

The process of connecting the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina with the United States began through emigration to the “New World.” Bosnians began settling in the US more intensively at the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century. Between 1905 and 1908, more than 11,000 emigrants from BiH started a new life in America. Initially, BiH communities mostly settled in Chicago on the shores of Lake Michigan. Over time, they also settled in places such as Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Montana.

According to current estimates, about 350,000 people from Bosnia and Herzegovina live in the United States, with the largest communities mainly in cities such as St. Louis, Chicago, Atlanta, New York, Jacksonville, San Jose, Seattle, Phoenix, and others.

Relations between BiH and the US are friendly and stable, while the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Balkans, and the wider European area dictates their dynamics. The United States is Bosnia and Herzegovina’s most important strategic partner, especially considering that after Europe’s passive stance during the aggression, US involvement was crucial to ending the war and signing, first, the Washington Agreement and then the Dayton Agreement. The consistency of US strategic policy towards BiH over the past 30 years has been tested by several changes in Washington administrations, but the White House has remained committed to the Dayton Peace Agreement, maintaining peace and stability in the challenging geopolitical environment of the Balkans.

George H. W. Bush

The George H. W. Bush administration was in power during the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia. After the referendum and declaration of independence on March 1, 1992, BiH began establishing diplomatic relations with other states and international organizations. The United States recognized BiH on April 8, 1992, while the first US ambassador to BiH was Victor Jackovich, starting his service on June 23, 1993. On the other hand, the first BiH ambassador in Washington, DC, was Sven Alkalaj, who took office on June 23, 1994, and remained ambassador until 2000. He received another mandate as BiH ambassador to the US in 2023.

As BiH came under aggression from the then Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Sarajevo was under a horrific siege and shelling, the US embassy was located in Vienna at the time. The US embassy was moved to Sarajevo only on July 4, 1994.

During BiH’s first year of independence, the US was in a presidential election campaign, so there was no intensified involvement in resolving the situation in BiH. At the time, the US considered BiH a “European problem” that Europe should resolve. US Secretary of State James A. Baker III emphasized that US involvement would not go beyond humanitarian aid and that broader international support was needed for more serious action. However, BiH was an important foreign policy topic in the presidential election.

Bill Clinton

When Bill Clinton took office in 1993, his administration was confronted with wars in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Particular interest in the situation in BiH was shown by Republican Senator Bob Dole and two Democrats, Joe Biden (the current US president) and Joseph Lieberman, who called for more decisive US action to stop the aggression against BiH. President Clinton’s initial policy was “Lift and Strike”—lifting the arms embargo on BiH and striking at the positions of the illegal Bosnian Serb army. This approach was soon abandoned because Europe did not support it.

During Clinton’s term, previous US presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Jimmy Carter publicly supported BiH. Nixon commented on the Markale market massacre, saying it almost certainly would not have happened if the West had intervened earlier. Reagan, in December 1992, stated: “Ethnic cleansing is a vile euphemism for the evil we have seen before in Europe.” Jimmy Carter was particularly active, visiting BiH in December 1994 and brokering a “Christmas ceasefire.”

US Secretary of State Warren Christopher initially considered the Balkan war a European problem, but later acknowledged that peace would not be achieved unless the US and NATO took the lead. US Ambassador to the UN Madeleine Albright played a special role in stopping the aggression, reporting on the horrors in Srebrenica, later judged as genocide by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague. Albright first visited Sarajevo in 1994 to witness the consequences of the siege.

Active and concrete US involvement in ending the war began in 1994 with the Washington Agreement and the formation of the Federation of BiH. The preliminary agreement was signed on March 1, 1994, in Washington by BiH Prime Minister Haris Silajdžić, Croatian Foreign Minister Mate Granić, and Bosnian Croat representative Krešimir Zubak. After the armed conflict between the Army of the Republic of BiH and HVO ended, the balance of power within BiH changed. The following year, NATO, led by the US, intervened militarily against the Bosnian Serb army and Serbian aggressor troops, bringing the Belgrade regime of Slobodan Milošević to the negotiating table in Dayton, Ohio. The chief US negotiator was Assistant Secretary of State for European and Canadian Affairs Richard Holbrooke. The Dayton Agreement was initialed on November 21, 1995, in Dayton and officially signed on December 14, 1995, in Paris.

Holbrooke later said: “The biggest mistake of the Dayton Agreement was allowing the Republika Srpska to keep the word ‘Republika’. We thought it had no more significance than the Republic of Texas or the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. We didn’t understand the historical connotations of that word for the Balkan reality. Of course, Milošević insisted on the name, but a few more Tomahawk missiles might have changed his mind.”

After the war, the US decided to deploy 20,000 troops in BiH as part of the NATO peace mission. Former President Gerald Ford sent a congratulatory message to Senator Dole, saying the decision was appropriate both militarily and diplomatically.

Albright visited BiH again in 1996, stating that the job in BiH was not finished. The following year, she became US Secretary of State. Besides her efforts to stop the war, she is remembered for supporting regime change in Banja Luka, giving a boost to new Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, whom she described as “a breath of fresh air in the Balkans.”

President Bill Clinton is the only sitting US president to have visited BiH, with visits in 1996, 1997, and 1999. No US president has visited BiH since.

George W. Bush

The new millennium brought new challenges for US foreign policy. George W. Bush faced major security challenges after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. With the focus shifting to other hotspots, the US reduced the number of troops in the NATO mission in BiH by 80%.

During Bush’s term, former President Clinton visited BiH in 2003 and opened the Srebrenica Memorial Center in Potočari. In 2006, with US support, an attempt was made to change the BiH Constitution, but the proposed changes did not gain the required majority in the BiH Parliamentary Assembly.

Barack Obama

Barack Obama entered the White House in 2009. The world expected a change in US foreign policy. Regarding BiH, Vice President Joe Biden visited in 2009, followed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2010, who opened the new US embassy in Sarajevo. During Obama’s two terms, US policy in the Balkans focused mainly on Kosovo.

This was followed by a phase of renewed EU “takeover” of BiH, similar to the 1990s, resulting in increased Russian influence in BiH and the Western Balkans, halting progress towards EU membership.

In response, former High Representative Paddy Ashdown and chief US Dayton negotiator Richard Holbrooke sent a letter to the international community: “It’s time to pay attention to Bosnia again, if we don’t want things to get very bad very quickly.” US Ambassador Patrick Moon tried to launch a reform of the Federation of BiH in 2013, gathering experts who made 181 concrete proposals to improve functionality. The proposals were never adopted.

In 2015, the US Congress adopted a resolution labeling the Srebrenica massacre as genocide and emphasizing the need to preserve BiH’s sovereignty and integrity. Former President Clinton visited BiH again in 2015 for the 20th anniversary of the genocide. The end of Obama’s second term was marked by the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, with BiH again in focus. Clinton cited her visit to BiH as an example of her international crisis experience, claiming it occurred under “sniper fire.” The reality was different, which hurt her campaign.

Donald Trump

Trump’s election surprised the world. For the first time, sanctions were imposed on Milorad Dodik for “actively obstructing the Dayton Agreement.” The BiH ambassador in Washington was experienced diplomat Haris Hrle. The policy of sanctions against Dodik continued throughout Trump’s term. Sanctions were imposed for “active obstruction of the Dayton Agreement.”

In addition to sanctions, Trump’s administration proposed a law in 2018 to establish a fund to promote economic and private sector development in BiH. BiH also has access to the Countering Russian Influence Fund.

Joe Biden

“In 1993, during the aggression against BiH, Joe Biden said: ‘The United States must lead the West in a decisive response to Serbian aggression, starting with airstrikes on Serbian artillery throughout BiH and on Yugoslav army units in Serbia involved in this international crime. Western forces should destroy every bridge over the Drina that Serbian authorities use to supply Bosnian Serbs.’”

That same year, Biden warned: “If the West does not act, Srebrenica will become the Guernica of our time.” Biden is the US president most familiar with the situation in BiH. He first visited BiH during the war as a senator and again in 2009 as vice president. The question arises whether BiH has adequately used the first three years of Biden’s term and his proven support. Part of Biden’s term was marked by efforts to stop the Covid-19 pandemic, which shifted the administration’s focus. The Russian invasion of Ukraine also became a top US foreign policy priority, increasing US engagement in the Balkans, especially BiH and Kosovo.

Biden’s administration featured Special Envoy for the Balkans Gabriel Escobar. After his visits to the region and BiH, on July 18, 2023, Escobar reported to Congress that it was necessary to strengthen EUFOR’s military presence in BiH and fully support the High Representative Christian Schmidt, including the use of Bonn Powers. He called for coordinated action with EU partners to stop donations and loans to the smaller BiH entity and continue the sanctions policy.

Escobar was asked why the EU had not imposed sanctions on RS and Dodik, to which he replied that it was a challenge to reach consensus among the 27 member states and that more pressure was needed on Hungary. Sanctions against Dodik from 2017 were expanded in 2022 for “corrupt and destabilizing activities” and in 2023 to his family members. In 2024, the sanctions policy continued, aiming to cut all financial channels supporting Dodik’s rule.

A detailed analysis shows that BiH’s progress towards EU and NATO membership depends heavily on the level of US involvement in BiH’s political situation. Therefore, BiH authorities need to make additional efforts and strengthen the BiH embassy in Washington to intensify contacts with the US administration, senators, and congressmen, all with the aim of accelerating BiH’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic family of states.

Renewed US engagement in BiH became evident with the appointment of Dayton Agreement legal architect James O’Brien as Assistant Secretary of State in October 2023. In 2022, O’Brien led the Office of Sanctions Coordination, when sanctions against Dodik were expanded. At his confirmation hearing, O’Brien stated: “Sanctions should target those who are corrupt in politics and business, and they will be effective if we can impose them in cooperation with our allies and partners. We will also show sanctioned individuals what they need to do for sanctions to be lifted.”

During his visit to Sarajevo in February 2024, O’Brien emphasized support for the High Representative’s use of Bonn Powers and that the US would act against all anti-Dayton activities. Shortly after his visit, Christian Schmidt introduced technical amendments to the Election Law. At the end of March 2024, banks in BiH began closing accounts of individuals and entities on the US “blacklist,” preventing them from withdrawing salaries or opening alternative accounts.

Sanctions previously imposed have finally begun to show their effect. US sanctions should be followed by EU and NATO partners.

Economic relations between BiH and the US are at a very low level in terms of trade, partly due to the two economies being completely different and incomparable in market strength. However, US financial aid and support for various projects have been crucial at certain times for BiH’s stability, strengthening institutions, and the private sector. According to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), since 1990, BiH has received more than $2 billion in aid. The primary sectors for investment have been reconstruction, humanitarian aid, economic development, and modernization of security and defense.

The main areas of current US involvement are:

According to the BiH Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are no significant bilateral agreements between BiH and the US, except those related to aid.

Bilateral Agreements between BiH and the US:

Economic relations could be significantly improved, especially considering that about 300,000 people of BiH origin live in the US. The peak in trade occurred in 2019, with total exchange exceeding 600 million KM. The main exports from BiH to the US are weapons and ammunition, wood and wood products, furniture, and textiles. The main imports from the US are oils and mineral fuels, as well as animal and vegetable fats. Trade is limited in volume and the balance is negative for BiH.

Table: Overview of Trade Exchange between BiH and the USA

US political relations towards BiH are purposefully determined, while their intensity varies depending on the administration in power in Washington. BiH should work more actively on nurturing and improving relations, especially in Washington and New York. The potential for such activity exists through the BiH diaspora. Additionally, the diaspora can be a driver of economic relations development, which are significantly lower compared to political relations. The space for such activity should initially be enabled by the BiH authorities.

Eldin Buljubašić