Speech by Adnan Kapo, Director of IGES at the Conference: “IGES 2025: Is a Multipolar World Possible?”
Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,
Welcome to the IGES 2025 conference: “Is a Multipolar World Possible?” Given that the title itself concludes with a question mark, it is entirely possible that we shall depart this hall today with more questions than definitive answers. Indeed, such an outcome may prove exceptionally constructive, for within the realm of geopolitics, absolute answers remain a rarity.
We are currently witnessing a concerted effort toward the global redistribution of political power and influence. Emerging powers, most notably China, Russia, and India, are seeking to reshape the existing international order, while those who predominantly forged it over the past three decades strive for its preservation. The last time the global balance of power shifted, during the 1990s, the territory of the former Yugoslavia paid an exacting price. Nevertheless, we maintain the hope, as the former President of the Republic of Croatia, Stjepan Mesić, was fond of saying, that the “geopolitical architecture of these regions is finalized.”
However, what if it is not? Regrettably, it is evident that one political center in the region, specifically Belgrade, has yet to demonstrate a readiness to embrace this established architecture. This is not merely a matter of the non-recognition of Kosovo’s independence; it pertains to attempts to undermine the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, states with which Serbia maintains formal diplomatic relations. While Belgrade formally acknowledges their independence, concrete political activities suggest efforts to destabilize and weaken these nations from within, leveraging political actors and structures under its influence. Under the guise of the so-called “Serbian World,” and with the support of Moscow, these actions undermine the security of the southeastern flank of both NATO and the European Union.
Given that the Balkans have for centuries served as a crossroads where the interests of empires, and today global powers, collide, history has confirmed that regional tensions are largely a reflection of the shifting of these great geopolitical tectonic plates. Consequently, this region acts as a seismograph of sorts, registering such friction; thus, any destabilization of the Balkans should serve as a signal for timely intervention by those invested in the security of the Western Hemisphere. This provides an additional, compelling reason for the urgent acceleration of the region’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures.
To facilitate a deeper understanding of our context, it is useful to remind our European partners that Europe itself only recently emerged from an era of protracted political conflict. Let us recall that wars on European soil once lasted for decades. The last major conflict concluded exactly eighty years ago. Shortly thereafter, in 1949, NATO was established, laying the foundations for today’s European security and political system. The objective was unequivocal: to prevent the recurrence of catastrophic warfare. It is therefore with good reason that the European Union is regarded as the most significant peace project in modern history.
It is essential to reiterate that the unification of Europe following the Second World War was constructed upon robust political, military, and economic support from the United States. The Marshall Plan, valued at over 12 billion dollars at the time, enabled the recovery of European states and the strengthening of the Transatlantic Alliance. This symbiosis of political and economic support, bolstered by military protection, created the bedrock of European prosperity and stability. Through this, the United States also secured its own interests, gaining new markets and a reliable partner on the European continent with whom to balance the influence of the then-powerful Soviet Union.
In this context, the question arises: how can we expeditiously integrate the Balkans and prevent further destabilization of the European continent? While Euro-skeptic forces exist within the region, they remain weaker than pro-European options. Or, to put it differently: they are only as strong as Sarajevo, Podgorica, Pristina, Tirana, Skopje, Brussels, London, Washington, Paris, and Berlin are weak in comparison to Belgrade and Moscow. Perhaps it is time for pro-European forces in the region to take the initiative to “play with the white pieces” on a synchronized regional political platform that can articulate a common direction and speak with a unified voice toward Brussels. In this regard, it would be prudent to coordinate our political, intellectual, and economic capacities to collectively seek decisive support from friendly centers of power. A logical question presents itself: “If the West, together with its local partners, cannot stabilize the Balkans, a region surrounded by NATO and the European Union, how does it intend to resolve the issue of Ukraine?” This is a question for us all to reflect upon.
Furthermore, it is vital to emphasize why the Balkans are as necessary to Europe as Europe is to the Balkans. History provides us with profound lessons. The political 20th century began with the assassination in Sarajevo in 1914 and concluded with the genocide in Srebrenica in 1995. Is this not a sufficient reminder that the stability of the Balkans must remain a European priority?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Perhaps today we cannot say with absolute certainty whether the existing order will endure or if a multipolar world with several equal poles will emerge. Some argue we have already entered such an era, while others believe we are still in a transitional phase. What we know for certain is that every historical shift in the global order has brought misfortune to this region.
However, should multipolarity become an inescapable reality, I would personally still choose the Euro-Atlantic orientation. We require progressive and inclusive values. Small states such as ours need the dominance of principles over power. We need integration, not to be a testing ground for spheres of influence. We need democratic, rather than autocratic, standards. I am confident that our region possesses the capacity to join the family of developed European nations, as we belong to Europe both geographically and culturally. The sooner this is realized, the better, for both the Balkans and for Europe.
Thank you.
